Climate Change Model verified with NASA data
‘Climate change (formerly known as Global Warming) is the biggest long-term issue that humanity presently faces. We are polluting the atmosphere with Green House Gases (GHG) to assured long-term mutual destruction.’
Or is this just Green-activist hyperbole and PR? NO- sadly it is true, even understated.
In 2019 UPC invested in a project to generate a reasonably accurate maths model of Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA) versus predicted carbon emissions from a rising population using on average more fossil fuels per head for their needs and wants.
The UN IPCC data in 2019 set the limit of 1.5°C rise from pre-industrial times with NASA et al data measurements of 416ppm CO2 and 1.1°C GTA. UPC early calculations predicted that the 1.5°C Paris Accord target was grossly optimistic, unless mankind made radical changes by 2022. But we needed better evidence not just another opinion.
Climate Change Model verified with NASA data
‘Climate change (formerly known as Global Warming) is the biggest long-term issue that humanity presently faces. We are polluting the atmosphere with Green House Gases (GHG) to assured long-term mutual destruction.’
Or is this just Green-activist hyperbole and PR? NO- sadly it is true, even understated.
In 2019 UPC invested in a project to generate a reasonably accurate maths model of Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA) versus predicted carbon emissions from a rising population using on average more fossil fuels per head for their needs and wants.
The UN IPCC data in 2019 set the limit of 1.5°C rise from pre-industrial times with NASA et al data measurements of 416ppm CO2 and 1.1°C GTA. UPC early calculations predicted that the 1.5°C Paris Accord target was grossly optimistic, unless mankind made radical changes by 2022. But we needed better evidence not just another opinion.
Data correlation of improved Myhre-based model was successful.
David applied Myhre’s core maths, adding predicted population growth, carbon emissions and the volume of the atmosphere and found a sensible GTA number could be predicted upto 2100.
The model was correlated with the 60 years of sensor data shown above going back to 1960. {There remains some scientific debate between the 800,000 years of Antarctic ice core data showing different links between CO2 and GTA}
In Q2 2020 the Covid pandemic hit and the response was global lock-down. Carbon emissions fell as many countries slowed down by staying at home…
In 2022 the worst mortality of the Covid pandemic appears over, so it is now time to think long-term carbon reduction again.
If we do nothing to reduce GHG emissions then in 80 years planet earth with be at 4.1 or 4.9°C ?, with enough PPM to give us all continual headaches (see UK HSE guide online)
UPC predicted that in 100 years the GTA would be 3.61°C if there was no change to emission increases.
BBC QTR1 2020 – stated that upto 3.2°C GTA was likely to happen.
UPC 2019 predictions close to the BBC at 3.6 °C GTA
The 2019 Blakey/UPC model predicts GTA of 1.60° C by 2040 with static emission rate increases.
The model suggested that we all need to halve carbon emission increases to achieve GTA 2.33°C by 2120.
UPC will update the GTA model with new data as it is published.
